Methodology Demonstration
70% of your “persuadable” universe isn’t.
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Safe Democratic. No competitive value for 2026. Which is why we can show you exactly what the methodology finds.
Standard targeting identifies roughly 48,000 “persuadable independents” in CD-07. Field plans get built around that number. Canvassers knock those doors. Budget gets allocated accordingly.
The problem: most of those independents vote the same party every cycle. They pull Democratic ballots in primaries. They’re not swing voters — they’re Democrats who don’t like the label.
Spent on doors that were never going to move.
Arizona’s open primary creates a signal that doesn’t exist in closed-primary states. When an independent voter chooses to pull a Republican or Democratic ballot, they reveal preference. Track that choice across cycles, and you can identify who’s genuinely persuadable.
In CD-07, behavioral analysis reduces the universe from 48,000 to 15,000. Those 15,000 have no consistent primary participation pattern. They show up to generals. They’ve been registered for years. Their behavior suggests genuine independence — not just the registration status.
We don’t track whether someone voted in a primary. We track who they voted with.
The math.
Standard approach: 48,000 doors. At $8 per contact, that’s $384,000 in field budget. But if only 30% of that universe is actually persuadable, you’re paying $27 to reach each genuine swing voter.
Behavioral targeting: 15,000 doors. Same $8 per contact — $120,000 in field budget. With 85%+ of the universe genuinely persuadable, you’re paying $9 per swing voter.
Same effective reach. $264,000 back in the budget for mail, TV, digital — whatever moves the needle.
Why we’re showing this.
CD-07 is D+13. This analysis doesn’t help anyone win in 2026.
But CD-06 is a toss-up. CD-01 is open. Seven legislative districts will decide control of the Arizona House. The methodology works the same in all of them.